Paraguay arrived at Levi's Stadium with one purpose: survive. They left with three points after Matías Galarza struck inside two minutes, and then spent the rest of the evening defending that lead with the ferocious collective discipline that Gustavo Alfaro's teams invariably produce. Türkiye, for all their possession and invention, could not find a way through. They end two matches without a goal and with nothing on the board, rooted to the bottom of Group D and facing the very real prospect of going home empty-handed.
The damage was done before most of the 68,000 in Santa Clara had settled. Julio Enciso released Galarza in the second minute, and the midfielder finished to make it 0-1. Türkiye had barely touched the ball. It was the kind of goal that defines a match not just in its immediacy but in its consequences: from that moment, Paraguay retreated, Türkiye pressed, and the contest became a prolonged test of whether 79 per cent possession could breach a back four determined to make it count for nothing.
For the opening phase it was ten against eleven, then, with a certain irony, it became ten against ten. Miguel Almirón was dismissed at half-time, leaving his side to play the entire second half shorthanded. That, by rights, should have been the decisive moment. It was not. If anything, Paraguay's defensive shape tightened after the break. Gustavo Alfaro reorganised, the back line held its discipline, and Orlando Gill produced five saves across the full 97 minutes to keep Türkiye at bay. An xG of 1.87 for Vincenzo Montella's side tells you the chances were there. The fact that only five of 31 shots were on target tells you they were not good enough.
Hakan Çalhanoğlu was persistent in attempting to unpick the block and Arda Güler carried genuine menace throughout, consistently looking the most likely to find a way in among a creative quartet that had the tools but not the execution. Kenan Yıldız was lively without quite delivering in the moments that mattered. Kerem Aktürkoğlu was replaced at the interval, a sign that the system needed reshaping even before the numerical advantage properly took hold. Barış Alper Yılmaz came on and offered directness down the flank, but Paraguay's centre-backs absorbed the threat with calm authority.
Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete were immovable in the heart of the Paraguayan defence. Juan Cáceres at right back was exceptional for his time on the pitch, reading play early and winning every significant duel. Andrés Cubas covered the ground in front of them with relentless diligence, mopping up second balls and breaking up the rhythm of Türkiye's build-up. Eleven corners for Türkiye across the match. Zero for Paraguay. And yet Paraguay won.
Paraguay's position in Group D reflects a difficult campaign thus far. Three points from two matches leaves them third with a goal difference of minus two. Türkiye are at the bottom with nothing to show from two games and no goals scored. They must win their final group fixture and depend on results elsewhere.
This was a match Türkiye were expected to control and win. They controlled it from the 3rd minute to the 97th and won nothing. Paraguay came to defend, took their goal when it arrived after 120 seconds, and went home with the points. That is the brutal arithmetic of a World Cup group stage, and Türkiye are now running out of time to solve it.