Croatia ground out the points they needed in Toronto, Ante Budimir's 54th-minute goal enough to beat a Panama side that created almost nothing across ninety minutes. The margin was a single goal but the scoreline flattered no one: this was a match decided by one moment of clarity in a game otherwise defined by caution and clenched defensive lines.
Panama set up in a five-man defence under Thomas Christiansen, the logic plain enough at kick-off. Keep it tight, make Croatia work, hope for something on the break. The problem was that the plan offered no genuine outlet. Panama finished the match with a single shot, and that was blocked before it reached the keeper. Their expected-goals figure of 0.06 tells you everything about how little they threatened Dominik Livaković, who did not need to make a save all evening. Nine fouls conceded, zero corners won, zero shots on target. The statistics paint a portrait of a team that came to BMO Field to survive and found that even that was beyond them.
Croatia, for all their possession, were barely more inventive in the attacking sense. Zlatko Dalic's 4-2-3-1 controlled the ball comfortably, 64 per cent of it, and completed 272 of 310 passes at an 88 per cent accuracy rate. But territory and tempo are not the same thing, and for long stretches of the first half Croatia circulated patiently without carving anything open. Two total shots across the whole match, one of them from outside the box, is a return that even a winning side has to acknowledge as modest. Croatia's own expected-goals figure of 0.05 tells a similar story. Both teams, in truth, played as if a single goal would be enough.
The goal, when it came, was straightforward. Josip Stanišić supplied the delivery in the 54th minute and Budimir, arriving as a substitute, converted. One touch, three points. Dalic could scarcely have scripted it more efficiently, even if the neutrals in the ground would have welcomed a little more adventure on either side.
Luka Modrić continued to pull the strings in midfield, his passing economy a cut above those around him. His reading of the game's tempo remains uncanny, and even in a match this constrained he found angles others could not see. He did not produce a moment of match-winning invention, but then the match did not demand one from him. Croatia simply needed to be better than Panama, and they were.
Josip Šutalo had the most assured evening of the Croatian defenders, composed whenever Panama's forwards attempted to spin in behind on the rare occasions the ball arrived in useful positions. Joško Gvardiol was less prominent going forward than his reputation might lead you to expect, which reflects how little Panama's deep block invited overlapping runs.
For Panama, Yoel Bárcenas was their liveliest performer in a match where liveliness was at a premium. He pressed well and found pockets of space, but without supply from midfield he could not manufacture anything serious. José Fajardo, isolated as Panama's lone striker against a well-organised back four, was asked to press rather than receive and spent most of the evening running into dead ends.
The group picture is now sharper. Croatia move to three points with a final match to play, alive but reliant on results elsewhere, given England and Ghana sit above them on four points apiece. Panama, still without a goal or a point in this tournament, are eliminated. It was not a night to savour from a neutral's seat, but for Croatia, the result was the only thing that mattered.