Germany 1-1 (3-4 pens) Paraguay: Player Ratings & Match Report

Paraguay have eliminated Germany from the 2026 World Cup on penalties, winning 4-3 in the shootout after a 1-1 draw through 120 minutes at Gillette Stadium in Boston. It is the kind of result that will be debated for a long time: Germany dominated every surface statistic imaginable, yet found themselves beaten by a side that had one quarter of the ball and managed seven shots across the entire night.

The numbers tell a bleak story for Nagelsmann's side. Germany completed 799 passes at 90 per cent accuracy, won 16 corners, and generated 21 shots. Paraguay had 257 passes, six corners, and seven shots. On expected goals the hosts registered 1.49 to Paraguay's 0.42. None of it mattered when Canale converted the decisive spot-kick and left Germany staring at an early exit.

Paraguay settled the first half with a goal that came against the run of play, as most of their best moments did. Julio Enciso, set up by Matías Galarza, put them ahead on 42 minutes. It was one of only three shots Paraguay managed on target all evening, and it went in. Germany had six shots on target and scored once. The mathematics of this game were cruel and entirely straightforward.

Kai Havertz equalised nine minutes into the second half, converting from close range after Florian Wirtz threaded the assist. Germany controlled the next period without ever truly threatening to break Paraguay down in any sustained way. Orlando Gill was outstanding in the Paraguayan goal, making six saves and repeatedly denying a German side that grew increasingly anxious as the clock advanced. Six saves across 120 minutes from a team that mustered 21 total shots tells you how frequently Germany found the goalkeeper when they should have found the net.

Extra time produced only greater frustration for the four-times world champions. Antonio Rüdiger departed before the close of extra time. The corners mounted, Germany pressed and probed, and still Paraguay held their shape. The Paraguayans managed only 25 per cent possession but they never stopped tracking, never stopped blocking, and never gave Germany the space to find the goal that would have settled it in normal play. When the whistle went for penalties, Germany had earned nothing from their two hours of dominance that they could carry into the shootout.

The sequence of spot-kicks had a momentum all its own. Paraguay's Mauricio opened proceedings to make it 1-2, Kimmich replied; Gómez put Paraguay 3-2 ahead, Musiala levelled at 3-3; Galarza, who had earlier assisted the opening goal, made it 4-3 for Paraguay. Then Canale, composed throughout the entire evening at centre-back, stepped up and settled it for Paraguay.

Germany's great collective failing, beyond Gill's outstanding display, was that only Wirtz among the attacking positions consistently threatened. Sané came off before 90 minutes without having imposed himself. Undav was replaced at 63 minutes without troubling the scoresheet. Musiala, introduced from the bench, was booked and could only deliver the penalty that could not rescue the tie on its own.

For Paraguay, this stands as one of the more remarkable results of the modern World Cup. Gustavo Alfaro's side defended with extraordinary organisation and collective resolve, proving that 25 per cent possession and 63 per cent passing accuracy can be enough with the right goalkeeper and the nerve to hold a shootout. Enciso and Galarza provided the attacking sparks; Gill was the foundation. Germany battered the door for two hours and could not force their way through it. They are out.

Germany and Paraguay meet in the Round of 32 on Monday evening in what amounts to a straightforward proposition for the European side: win, or go home. It is knockout football at its most unforgiving, and for Paraguay, ranked as heavy outsiders by almost every measure, it represents the kind of occasion their players will either rise to or be quietly overwhelmed by.

Germany arrive as the presumed favourites, though 45 per cent backing from the data models is a long way short of dominance. The same figure is assigned to a draw, which tells you something about the uncertainty baked into single-elimination football at this stage of a World Cup. Paraguay, on 10 per cent, are not entirely without hope, but they will need to be disciplined, organised, and fortunate in roughly equal measure.

On the team news front, Germany report two absences ahead of kick-off. N. Brown and N. Schlotterbeck are both unavailable, the latter a blow to their defensive options if, as expected, their back line is tested on the break. Paraguay are without D. Gómez, which weakens their attacking options at precisely the moment they need every threat they can muster.

The head-to-head record offers no useful guide here: the two nations have not met before, so there is no psychological ledger to consult, no previous meeting to lend either side an edge in confidence or familiarity.

Germany's pedigree in knockout rounds scarcely needs rehearsing. Four World Cup titles and a reputation for finding something extra when the margins tighten have made them a reliably difficult proposition in the latter stages of a tournament. Paraguay, by contrast, have historically punched well above their weight in World Cups, reaching the quarter-finals in 2010 with a brand of resolute, structured defending that frustrated better-resourced opponents. Whether this edition of the side carries those same qualities is a question Monday evening will answer.

The data suggests a Germany victory with at least two goals in the match, which implies the models expect Paraguay to stay compact without being able to hold the line for ninety minutes. Whether that reading proves correct, or whether Paraguay produce something to confound the numbers, is precisely why the game gets played. Kick-off is at 21:30 UK time on Monday 29 June.